Download The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith PDF

By Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith

For eighteen years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith were a part of a workforce revolutionizing the examine of politics through turning traditional knowledge on its head. they begin from a unmarried statement: Leaders do no matter what retains them in strength. They don’t care in regards to the “national interest”—or even their subjects—unless they've got to.
This smart and available booklet exhibits that the adaptation among tyrants and democrats is simply a handy fiction. Governments don't fluctuate in type yet in basic terms within the variety of crucial supporters, or backs that desire scratching. the dimensions of this staff determines nearly every little thing approximately politics: what leaders can escape with, and the standard of lifestyles or distress less than them. the image the authors paint isn't beautiful. however it simply could be the fact, that's a superb place to begin for someone trying to enhance human governance.

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By way of example, improved visa and passport procedures could produce tighter security at relatively low cost without substantial increases—and potentially even a reduction—in waiting times for most travelers. Measures of intermediate cost that would impose a limited burden on the economy would be to inspect most cargo during loading overseas. And a    ’  Table 2-1. Perimeter Defense Area of defense Activity Air Air defense Cruise and ballistic missile defense systems Airport security Sea Coast protection Cargo security Seaport security Road and rail Ports of entry security Unmanned border monitoring People Visa processing Document integrity enhancements Document checks high-cost effort might be to inspect most cargo at home using traditional techniques and a massively expanded Customs Service.

S. government that would Table 1-1. S. S. Congress, 1993).   Table 1-2. ) consumer confidence Attack on interstate natural gas pipelines in Southeast United States Natural gas shortages in North- $150 billion east and Midwest; significant reduction in economic activity in Northeast; loss of life from direct attacks and from heat/ cold; destruction of physical capital Large attacks that expose a finite and reparable vulnerability (like 9/11) Substantial but temporary weak- $100 billion ening of economy due to direct (loss of human life and physical capital) and indirect effects (decline in confidence and network failures) Cyberattack on computer Regional electricity shortages $25 billion systems regulating regional that persist for a week; health electric power, combined risks from heat/cold; interrupwith physical attacks on tion of production schedules; transmission and distribudestruction of physical capital tion network Bombings or bomb scares Effective shutting down of several major cities for a day $10 billion Note: The attacks postulated in this table, and even their relative rankings, are illustrative and speculative.

Absent individual identifying information, the new architecture would not necessarily lead to a more effective response. Nor is it clear how state and local officials or the private sector would access analysis and intelligence from the new TTIC. As a practical matter, lines of communication will probably run from both DHS and the FBI, creating further confusion and uncertainty and lessening the responsiveness of the tasking and analysis function to the needs of these key end users. There are two steps that would remedy these difficulties.

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